Discretionary spending has this multiplier effect, so when it shrinks, the economic harm spreads across many sectors.
Chinese scientists are working to "climate change proof" potatoes, preparing for the challenges posed to agriculture by the realities of a warming world.
At the International Potato Centre near Beijing, researchers are growing miniature spuds in conditions mimicking temperatures three degrees above the current annual average for the northern Hubei province.
Listen to this story at James Meadway's podcast, Macrodose.
Three degrees is about where the UN’s latest Emissions Gap report predicts we’ll land by the end of the century if current emissions policies hold. While not the worst-case scenario, it would still mean dramatic changes to the world we know - and potatoes are already feeling the strain.
Prices
The researchers are developing heat-resistant varieties, but as the lead scientist points out, farming methods will need to adapt too - whether that’s adjusting planting and harvesting schedules or shifting cultivation to higher, cooler altitudes.
Potatoes are the world’s fourth-largest food crop by volume, after rice, wheat, and maize, and China leads as the largest producer.
Spuds are much higher yielding compared to other staples, requiring less fertilizer and sunlight for similar amounts of calories produced, but they’re particularly vulnerable to heat, heavy rainfall, and waterlogging - all of which climate change is making more common.
Potato prices across Europe have surged, rising 23 per cent in the EU over the past year, as a deadly mix of droughts stunted growth, followed by heavy rains that hampered harvesting, slashing yields. Early estimates suggest the total crop harvested across Europe could be down by as much as nine per cent.
This is climateflation: the term describes the slow, steady rise in prices caused by climate-related supply shocks. It’s not about the headline-grabbing disasters like floods or heatwaves, but the everyday impacts of climate change - like the gradual, persistent increase in the cost of essentials we rely on, such as potatoes.
Discretionary
The political effects of climate change are undoubtedly becoming more apparent. From potatoes to olive oil to butter, the prices of everyday items are increasing due to climateflation, and, as we discussed with reference to the farmers’ protest a fortnight ago, political coalitions are being built in response.
This year, incumbent governments worldwide have been ousted or lost majorities, with voters citing rising living costs - especially food prices - as a top concern, from Japan to India, Britain to the US. Heather Stewart, writing in the Observer this week, raised the same spectre of ongoing political and economic instability.
Discretionary spending has this multiplier effect, so when it shrinks, the economic harm spreads across many sectors.
But there’s a deeper economic shift happening: in both the US and UK, households are spending a smaller share of their income on “discretionary” items - the things we choose and enjoy spending money on, like dining out, cinema trips, or holidays.
Unlike essentials like food or housing, these are the non-essential, "fun" expenses that are increasingly getting squeezed. As the price of essentials has crept up we’re starting to see people having to devote more and more of their income to paying for those essentials, and so spending less on things they might choose to buy.
KPMG’s most recent UK consumer survey suggests that over half of UK consumers had cut back on discretionary spending, with restaurants and meals out the most frequently cut. Overall discretionary spending in the US is down 15 per cent on last year, much more than the fall in spending overall.
Protect
When people cut back on dining out, for example, restaurants see lower turnover, leading to closures and job losses. The same happens with other businesses offering non-essential goods and services too, like cinemas or gyms.
Discretionary spending has this multiplier effect, so when it shrinks, the economic harm spreads across many sectors.
So on one side, rising prices for essentials are creating boom times for their suppliers - agribusiness, for example, has seen its biggest profits in history over the past few years. But on the other side, it’s driving this exact economic spiral for everyone else.
And this brings us back to China’s potato experiments. Science, like the research underway in Beijing, offers tools to push back against the spiraling challenges of climate change. Innovative developments like these are crucial for securing food supplies in an increasingly unstable climate.
They remind us that we still have agency—that we can act to protect people from the steep costs of a warming world.
Capitalism
We can’t afford to stand by while the global climate transforms around us. There will be breakthroughs, adaptations, and new technologies to soften the hardest edges, at the very least.
But that requires channeling more funding and resources into practical, urgent tasks - like cultivating climate-resilient crops - rather than indulging in speculative fantasies about, say, Artificial General Intelligence.
But technology itself can only take us part of the way. The deeper challenge lies in confronting the economic impacts of climate change, which is profoundly shaping our social realities. This is where building new economic narratives becomes vital - stories that bridge science, nature, and lived experience, helping us rethink our connections to one another and the world around us.
Ultimately, the question is: What kind of world do we want to live in? What do we value in a world beyond growth? And how can we confront the intersection of climate breakdown and for-profit capitalism, to secure a liveable future for all.
Stories like the humble potato experiment remind us of what’s at stake - and what might be possible - when we act with necessary urgency and imagination to the realities of our rapidly changing world.
This Author
Dr James Meadway is an economist and former political advisor. This article is based on a transcript of an episode of Meadway's podcast, Macrodose.
